Betfair Trading – Horse Racing – Profiting From A Late Move

There are so many different ways to catch move in when trading on Betfair in Racing markets. Using information on Bet Angel, If I arrive late to a market I will often look at the predominant trend the opposing it in the dying moments before a race starts.

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This allows me the chance to profit, not only from exhaustion in a trend but also from people closing out longer terms positions.

It’s one of a number of tactics I’ll use depending on what’s in front of me.

Write up:

if you are interested in learning more about bet angel’ its tools and the opportunities they present then why not visit bet angel comm today and download a free trial so here’s an interesting trade that I did this week amongst many but the interesting thing about this trade is it’s something that I liked it often so I have another chart here one thing we you know that’s gone out and look at the second and that’s sort of you know and there doesn’t seem to be any trend there and here you know a couple of spikes so we’re just trying to get a feel for what we’re seeing in the market and how the markets developing and we have a look at suffragette City here and you can see it’s being backed in heavily now it’s you can see my attention is drawn to suffragette City almost immediately and what I’m looking at here is I’m gonna intensely watch the activity in the market at this particular point because typically prices don’t go in one direction only the tends to move around a bit so you can see here we’ve seen a bit of a bounce from 5 6 up to 6 so again you know I’m watching and I’m beginning to think about lining up a trade here and typically when we see activity like this I’m looking down at the bottom end of this traded range and thinking is this gonna push lower and based upon what I feel in the market and what I can see in terms of activity you can see it’s already been down there and touched it and it bounced so if it comes down here again I’m looking to see if it stops at that point and if the backing just dries up which appears to be what’s happening I’m just checking the chart again here say if you look it down here can you see the prices come in bounced out come in and it’s right at that point again now something in ok there’s an opportunity for trade here it’s a little bit of money touched at 5 5 but I never want any lower so I’m looking to establish a position at or around this point now obviously you need to be confident that um it’s not going to go get blasted off the charts at the bottom here but um if you’re looking at all the other runners and taking into account all of the information then you can make a little bit of money some of this is down to how long you’ve got left so we’ve got about a minute left here but this has been backed in heavily there’s some money sat there at five point five this has been backed heavily for most of the duration of the market so I’m looking here for people to start taking out their positions and that will inevitably push the price back up again so if we sit here and be patient we’re gonna see if it goes below five now and you can see that money’s vanished from there so we’re keeping a really close eye on this now let me see it touched five but it never went below five and went into the last minute now I’m having a look over here it’s the favorite and what’s going on over there just just centralize the ladder which means I’m usually getting ready to trade and I’m just looking for that little bit of upward momentum I’m looking for signs that because it’s been banked in heavily and we’re on to this race late that we’re going to get a little bounce back just before the start of the race here so you can see much care and attention I’m paying in terms of getting involved here it’s important to note here that the race is off late as well so hopefully that will fill in a bit more of the puzzle for you but I’m just looking for evidence here that it’s not going to go any lower and then in fact the money is going to start coming for something else so you can see my confidence here is geared specifically to the level of activity that we’re seeing on this particular runner I’m waiting to see what happens when it gets matched at five is it going to push down towards four or are we going to see no sign of that and the price heading back in the other direction so you can see I’ve just put my first order in the market turned in 56 quid a little bit of money back to the game but can you see that money at five and that knows a little surge back so I’m looking around here and thinking well okay you know this is probably about the level at which I would expect it to go up to with the amount of time that we’ve got left available to us but big slug of money at five it’s never traded below five so I’m framing it as though that’s my opportunity there that’s the potential downside that I’m looking at and I just want to catch a little bounce off the bottom here money’s evaporated at 5.3 we don’t need much more to get it to our target price there we do need a little bit of a move here so you can see already I’ve spent most of my time on this video just trying to carefully assess what’s going on in this market and where the floor is and as soon as I felt that the floor had been reached that’s when I jumped in so it’s just a question now waiting and you can see the amount of time on the concrete just a question of waiting for these positions to get touched there we go we are now at the point at which I was anticipating we would exit so we just have to manage this position now you can see in the video it’s unlikely that it would go back down to five at this particular point not impossible nothing’s impossible of course you can just see we’re beginning to get matched here at five five now because we’re past posted a lot of liquidity is dried up so it’d be very easy for me to dump these positions but I wouldn’t get the best out of this trade so I’m just sat there and patiently waiting for the orders to fill sometimes that can be a little annoying but you can see here that the push is continuing more money’s getting taken at five four all we need is for it to sit at five five for any length of time and that money there will start to get taken there’s only one hundred and forty five lows it can be a bit frustrating but the liquidity tends to rise towards post time and then it tails off dramatically after post so this isn’t unusual activity for a market that is going to start a little bit late so frustratingly we still haven’t been matched and there we go and now we’ve just got to wait and see if the money gets matched at five six it’s getting a bit painful now so you can see I’m looking here to split up the order to make sure that and you know a bit of luck a little bit of luck there but we could tell that the pressure was heading in that direction and as we’ve got closer to post the impetus for people to take out positions this thing that had been moving in fairly consistently for a long period of time was quite high and that’s effectively what we’re looking for we were looking for people just to take out that position and you know if they’ve had a decent trade or whatever it was a good opportunity for them to be able to take that position and reverse it back into the market and you can see here the charts and basically what we exploited very slight but it successful trade you..

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  • It all seems too easy watching this, but the horse could quite easily have gone below 5. I can get things right most of the time but suddenly the odds will quickly jump to 4 and it’ll wipe out my last several winning trades.

  • I watch a lot of markets, the majority of the time when a horse hits 5,9 and has not touched that price previously it will usually go down to around the 5.2 mark, I say usually as this doesnt always happen, when it doesnt you will lose more being on the wrong side of a crossover , so this is a good tatic as far as risk is concerned, if the price falls below 4 it hardly ever comes back

  • Any reason why you prefer to not have hedging on the ladder and do a market hedge at the end instead? Is this incase you end up trading more than 1 runner and get a better hedge price or what? I’ve always turned on hedging on the ladder so I can see what I’m getting; maybe that’s the wrong approach…

  • That’s seems a lot of money matched and unmatched for a 7 runner competitive handicap race at Southwell all weather in winter.

  • Good to see a trade where the top few horses are priced around 5. I struggle with these the most. It’s always easy looking back at a recording; but seeing the price hang at 5 for some time – simply scalping there was the right thing? Very interesting hearing an experienced pro’s thought process. Good stuff.